Was I wrong?
I've been at Microsoft 9 years nearly and what continually surprises me is how rapidly technology changes....
When I joined we were in the throws of creating Windows 2000 and Windows 98! Before Microsoft I was actually involved in the Windows NT 3.1 Advanced Server and the joys of MS Mail - (I can sadly still remember the directories in the Post Office server!)
I had a really 'interesting' experience over the past week. I had a customer get really annoyed that I could not give them a 10 year roadmap for Mobility. I was more than happy to share our 2 year roadmap (under NDA of course) and 3-5 year vision but the customer got really really irritated that I couldn't give them a 10 year detailed view....
I was chatting with Darren today and we agreed that on one hand it was reassuring that the customer had the confidence that we could give them the 10 year roadmap but on the other hand it was somewhat unrealistic to expect us to give concrete detail for 10 years.
So was I wrong ? Should we be able to give a 10 year roadmap for Mobility?
Comments
Anonymous
September 05, 2007
The comment has been removedAnonymous
September 05, 2007
I'm impressed with a 2 year roadmap - 10 months in mobile is more realistic than 10 yearsAnonymous
September 05, 2007
I'm impressed with a 2 year roadmap - 10 months in mobile is more realistic than 10 yearsAnonymous
September 05, 2007
No we don't. But that doesn't stop people thinking we are the guys who control the Internet and can bendAnonymous
September 05, 2007
Hmmmmm, I remember ten years ago we were talking about something called Cairo, and look what happened there! ;-)Anonymous
September 05, 2007
10 year roadmap? Easy! Tell them to read this: http://tinyurl.com/3e35ab Problem solved ;)Anonymous
September 05, 2007
A ten year road map for any technology at the beginning of the DotCom era looks significantly different than a ten year roadmap a few years afterwards. Oh, wait, no one had a ten year roadmap!Anonymous
September 05, 2007
If you compare the way and rate at which technology changes, with a drive in a car, then consider your customers' request: It would be like taking a Veyron for a full speed drive through the twirly roads of the Austrian or Swiss alp roads, with some of it being a bit like an australian or african outback dirtroad (imagine those in a Veyron), and with only very few and very short stretches of open asphalt road. Except... there'd be 100 alps you'd have to choose from constantly. Very comparable actually. Sometimes the mobile business is slow. A lot of the time it's a bumpy road. But at certain times it's fastmoving, directly forward. Those moments are rare though. You could of course plan for taking a Veyron down bumpy dirtroads, or alp roads at 300 km/h. Your vision could be to conquer the whole stretch at full speed, with a fully functional Veyron at the end. Again, very comparable. You're very likely to succed short term. Right up until you hit the bumps or do a 300 km/h flight from a 3 km tall alp road. But are you likely to succeed long term ? Probably not. Something, you can bet your life on that, changed on the way. And you either don't arrive, you take another road, or you arrive in a totally different car, with a totally revised plan, and a competely new vision. That's why there are plans and visions. Visions are long term, but descibe only an ideal situation, consisting of current needs, dreams and "I WANT THAT !". Plans are for those things more real and obtainable. Would I trust a guy that had a vision of taking a Veyron on that trip ? No... Just as I wouldn't trust any 10 year mobile technology roadmap that was written in stone. I might as well believe we were descendants of those people on Battlestar Galactica then.Anonymous
September 05, 2007
Absurd 2-3 year detail is still impressive in this fast moving world 5 year vision (broad reach) 10 year! LOL What you should ask for by return is their business plan ours is detailed to 1-2 years, 3 frimer , 5 vision - 10 !Anonymous
September 05, 2007
Did this customer have a 10yr road map for his own business? I'd be surprised if they did if the business was in anyway based around mobile technology. My 10 yr plan - stay aliveAnonymous
September 05, 2007
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September 05, 2007
The comment has been removedAnonymous
September 05, 2007
I'd suggest he looks at the mobile space ten years ago, when Palm ruled the world, Psion was a contender, and the iPod didn't exist and ask if he could have reliably predicted it would end up where it is today...Anonymous
September 06, 2007
Totally unrealistic, unless he's happy for years 2 - 10 to just say "add some new stuff"!Anonymous
September 06, 2007
Just ask him what he would like to see in 10 years time. Then that is your vision. There is as much chance of it happening as anything you say :-P but at least your vision would match his :-)Anonymous
September 07, 2007
Folks, thanks for clarifying that I wasn't completely out of order here :) Of course as suggested I could have challenged the customer to share their business plan over the next 10 years and I could align our roadmap there... :)