Follow up: When a 'False Positive' isnt' a false positive

Since my post on Sunday, in which I talk about what a false positive is and what it isn't, I've received a couple of questions about the scenarios I outlined and how the math works so I'd like to clear some of that up.

First off, the purpose of outlining the four scenarios was to show some of the situations in which WGA would indicate that a system is not genuine or licensed (and it would be correct) but the user of that system might be somewhat suprised by that failure and might even feel as though the WGA validation failure was in error leaving them possibly with the sense of a false positive. To be clear, in each of those scenarios the copy of Windows installed would fail validation and that would be the correct determination. The crucial similarity among the four scenarios I outlined is that in each the user might be surprised by the validation failure, being surprised does not make the validation failure erroneous.

Second, as to the total number of validation failures being about one in every five attempts, the fact is that there are numerous other scenarios that could result in validation failure. In many of those other scenarios the user of the system or purchaser of the software has some knowledge that the software isn't genuine or isn't properly licensed and is perhaps not as surprised when the validation fails. There are people who likely fall all along a range of awareness from mere suspicion, owing to the fact that they got a really good price online or for used software or some other 'too good to be true' deal, to someone who has full knowledge that the software isn't genuine or licensed and even futher to those who manufacture and sell counterfeit software and are knowing perpetrators in significant and serious crime. All together people who don't know, people who know and everyone in between who have counterfeit or unlicensed software on their system amount to about one out of every five validation attempts.

Lastly, I would like to add a little more context to something I said in my last post about the number of actual false positives we've seen in the program. Over the last year there have been occasions where we have received reports of what might be real false positives. Each time we receive a report like this and can gather enough detail we perform our own tests to determine if there might be a bug in the code or something else that could negatively impact WGA's ability to accurately make a determination. The total number of what might be actual false positives found over the past year amout to only a fraction of a percent.

Comments

• Anonymous
  July 20, 2006
  I've gotten a false positive and from what I can see on the internet there are many people given the the same story as myself.  Of course I was asked to make changes to my system without ever trying to understand why I was getting the false positive in the first place.  I'm sure there are far more false positives then you realize.  They just get misidentified and hidden in your other categories even though they shouldn't be.  I haven't changed my keys.  My course of action was to remove the notification process from my system.  
  
  I verified with HP that my keys were legit.  They offered me an XP cd, but I told them I didn't need them since I have never used my MSDN or Action Pack XP licenses and it isn't their fault that the notification tool is displaying incorrect information.
  
  I'm not very happy with Microsoft and you have me seriously looking at my alternatives.

• Anonymous
  July 20, 2006
  I'm working on a Gateway 300s that crashed during an Windows XP SP2 upgrade.  This happened when my customer's son in-law so graciously decided to upgrade the PC  while they were away on vacation.  
  My research indicates that this system will not except Windows SP2.  I used the Gateway provided recovery CDs to reinstall Windows XP.  As I'm running Windows Updates I receive the Windows Validation Notification, the validation fails and I'm soon redirected to install the WGA notification tool (please excuse any deviation from MS nomenclature).
  
  Here's my dilemma, I'm going to return this computer to my customer with all of the pre -SP2 updates, and a blue WGA star in the task bar telling them that their version of Windows is not up to date.  You can right click on the blue WGA star and  disable Critical Windows Service Pack Notifications, but the blue star remains giving the option to upgrade to SP2.  Further more WGA has no uninstall option in Add or Remove Programs.  Microsoft has instructions on removing the pilot version of WGA but not for the latest WGA (KB905474).  I'm left looking for a way to disable it, but  it would sure be nice to be able to uninstall it.
  
  Microsoft please listen to your reasonable paying customers

• Anonymous
  July 20, 2006
  I'm sorry if either or both of you (burceatk and leepen) are having difficulty with WGA. I would recommend to both of you that you post (what you've written here) to our WGA forum where there are a number of folks that can help you identify exactly what is happening. I can assure both of you as I indicated in my earlier post that we take reports of false positives very seriously and if the typical solutions will not work we will investigate further.
  
  You can find our forum where you can report your issues at: http://forums.microsoft.com/genuine/default.aspx?siteid=25
  
  Thanks - Alex

• Anonymous
  July 24, 2006
  Alex - Can you be more specific than "The total number of what might be actual false positives found over the past year amout to only a fraction of a percent."  What percentage is that, and based on the huge number of instances, what is the real number of customers who are being falsely accused of running pirated software?  
  
  

• Anonymous
  July 26, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  July 30, 2006
  I believe nothing MS and their representatives say anymore. There always seems to be some sort of loophole, you're told by one rep you can get a solution, to call this other number, and then that rep says you can't, unless you pay more $ to Microsoft. And they always try to pass the buck to someone else.
  
  I have 2 legitimate, purchased, and registered OEM copies of Operating systems here on theis home theatre PC, which was originally built by an excellent and reputable system builder with only XP x 64. The hardware was all brand new, and powerful enough to run Vista. Unfortunately, a 64-bit driver still doesn't exist for LG's superdrive, so I could never get it to go into DMA mode. What use is a drive that won't go into DMA? So I had to drop another $400 on top of $2500 to get the PC into a dual boot system with Media Centre Edition with another OEM OS, the extra system hardware that allowed me to purchase the second OEM OS (neither x64 OR MCE is sold in any way BUT OEM) AFTER I proved it was all good, new, and complete hardware with the complete batch of receipts, and spent weeks getting it all working properly - despite the fact that MS didn't even label the installation disks properly.
  
  Now, without touching the hardware for 3 months, I had to re-activate my windows again on this same computer because I was greeted this morning with the "Your hardware has changed significantly", and was only given 3 lousy days to do it. I know for a FACT that my hardware hadn't changed, I know for a FACT that it was a legitimate and verified copy, and I know for a FACT that I will never purchase Vista or any other Microsoft software ever again -- until Microsoft comes clean and drops this "call-home" busines completely.
  
  Proctor and Gamble as well as Department of Defence corporate users are also getting these false positives, so don't bother with more marketing-based lies like "only a fraction of a percent". Microsoft is simply insulting our colelctive intelligence with this, adding further insult upon insult, AFTER having being libelously accused of theft, had MS try to extort more $, and had my time wasted.
  
  I believe in removing the WGA. And that's my choice.  

• Anonymous
  July 31, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  July 31, 2006
  Alex, after about one year using an legal and activated license of XP Pro the same happened to me what happened to tickedoff!! I was really suprised to be charged of being a thief or a criminal!! Also the statement that the seller I bought my license from might be a criminal is a kind of daring because it's a big IT Discounter.  So I tried to reactivate my license, but it seems to be impossible. Tommorow I will try to contact your information service here in Germany, because they are are only working til 6pm. What you are doing with this WGA is not paying off, because you are only punishing honest people or do you think that I would have turned the automatic software update on if I had an illegal license?? Little intelligence is necessary to come to that conclusion!! If your support tells me that I need to reinstall my OS it will definitivly not be XP after reinstallation. Anyway, I'm currently thinking of buying an Apple Notebook instead of an Microsoft powered machine. Last but not least I'm wondering what will happen when you start to implement your software in automotives...

• Anonymous
  August 10, 2006
  WGA is a great idea, I really would like to see Microsoft set a better example to stop software priracy. However when support is needed with a customer that had this software installed without his/her consent, it should be of a higher quality than what is going on currently in the WGA forum :
  
  http://forums.microsoft.com/Genuine/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=623637&SiteID=25
  
  

• Anonymous
  August 10, 2006
  And I guess since Phil Liu MSFT didn't like the response he went and deleted the thread after I had solved it with help from a windows support tech named nick.
  
  but that's alright, I just happend to have a copy of the thread:
  http://www.djspark.com/wga/wga.htm
  
  

• Anonymous
  August 15, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  August 29, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  September 04, 2006
  This is disgraceful. You should be ashamed of yourself. This has nothing to do with what is right or wrong, but what you can get away with.
  
  I know it is hard of MS to admit it, but you have to face facts: MS software is often faulty. You give every excuse under the sun bar one: the WGA software could be at fault. It is always everybody else's fault.
  
  Just take a look at your 'contact us' page. It gives loads of contacts OUTSIDE the MS organisation, always trying to deflect the blame.
  
  I bet you will niot answer this comment except to deflect the blame elsewhere. You've only given one answer, and that was to push the problem elsewhere. Like everyone else at MS, you can make the speech, as no one dares to question you.
  
  I bought XP with my PC.  Nobody complained at the time, when I was haniding the cash over, nobody validated it, but now, years later, you complain. Sorry, too late.
  
  Think of the bad publicity: when you bring out new software, and I buy it, OEM, official store, sealed, full price, how do I know that in a years time you won't just say "Sorry, we've decided its not genuine" ?
  
  Sorry, but this is a very poor show, you need to sort this out. Do your job and answer some of the questions raised here. Don't deflect, don't pass the buck. You started this, now at least answer the critics.
  
  
  

• Anonymous
  September 04, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  September 04, 2006
  I don't believe it, I learned about fraud (Direct knowledge) within the Microsoft organization and you won't publish it.  Not much of an open forum here, is it?

• Anonymous
  September 04, 2006
  Well, maybe we need to foucs our resources on the REAL enemy in this?  Fraud is fraud, if you find a thief lets prosecute.  But, what if its you?  Bill Gates never ran for political office but pulls the strings of government.  The Microsoft organization is based on deceipt when its developed its first business plan.  Remember IBM, the diamond of the business machine industry.  They want nothing to do with Microsoft.  Maybe they don't like being your partner i n crime.  In California, conspiracy to commit any crime including is a FELONY.  I am anxious for you to sue me, or I'll file a suit against you.  I am tired of the lies and deceipt.  Lets see, Has a copy of WINDOWS EVER failed?  I know your answer will be NO.  LKets start with this lie.  Go ahead, tell us that Windows failures never occur, and never cause hard ship or expenses.
  
  
  The biggest problem that most criminals have, is not that they lie to others.  It's that they lie to themselves.
  
  It's too bad you can't smell the stink where you are.  I use the "stink test" all the time.  
  
  This Microsoft organization (WINXP organization) smells like a sewer!
  
  I think it's time to go to LINUX!  No more Microsoft.  We can't trust YOU anymore.
  
  

• Anonymous
  September 04, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  September 04, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  September 07, 2006
  The comment has been removed

• Anonymous
  September 07, 2006
  I've just had microsoft inform me that my windows xp professional is not legitimate. Since I bought it from Staples, I find the idea that it is not a genuine program to be absurd. No corporation that large and dependent on the good will of businesses sells fake software. It would damage their sales forever.
  
  I've asked a professional to reload the software and work out the problem, but they told me to contact microsoft directly.. everyone was having the same problem, yadda.. yadda... and give microsoft my purchase code etc to clear up the confusion.
  
  Now I am attempting to get through to microsoft for direct help, but can't get through to them.   I don't have time to sit waiting for hours before my turn arrives.  I am a novice and not comfortable with delating and reloading a foundational program like windows without trained guidence.  Meanwhile, the "blue screen" keeps popping up.  Any suggestions?  

• Anonymous
  September 11, 2006
  The phase upgrade is not a real term.  When my system DIED, I needed to reinstall it.  With the MB and HD in poor shape I just started over again.  This time MS stated that I had too may copies installed.  1 was running the rest are dead.
  
  Sadly as stated above, the only real way to fix the problem is to give MS more money.
  
  As XP was on sale, I when I bought a copy.  In less time that it took to write this short message the problem was fixed.
  
  MS, just send money, oh, and that does not ensure that your SW will work tomorrow.
  
  Sad state of affairs.  But I do remember the time when most SW never worked, at least MS SW works most of the time.
  
  Just send money.

• Anonymous
  September 13, 2006
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  November 20, 2006
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