Performance modeling of applications like MediaPlayer

How do you create performance models for complex applications like MediaPlayer?  Or better yet, what is the answer to the question:

“What happens to the performance of my favorite application X if I upgrade from Windows Vista to Windows 7?”

Well when it comes to Vista, I think you might have an answer, but for other upgrades, what is an answer?

The paper title: Practical Performance Models for Complex, Popular Applications , this link is a direct download and was functional as of 6/9/2011.

This paper explores the concept of the “Red Button” (not the one that starts the self destruct sequence, but rather something like a “turbo” switch.

Included in the paper is interesting thinking about the many “What-If” questions an administrator or developer might ask.